Will the US go to War with Iran?

There have been several reports this past week about Iran conducting naval exercises in the Persian Gulf. There has also been an increase in US rhetoric against the Iranian regime. President Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstated sanctions against the country. President Trump has zealously warned Iranian leadership on Twitter about any threats directed to the US.

There have been several reports this past week about Iran conducting naval exercises in the Persian Gulf. There has also been an increase in US rhetoric against the Iranian regime. President Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstated sanctions against the country. President Trump has zealously warned Iranian leadership on Twitter about any threats directed to the US.

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018

This leaves us with one very important question; will the US go to war with Iran?

Here is a list of five key indicators of military preparation to watch out for. They are based on previous preparations made by the country in the past. Of course, it’s also entirely possible that one side could launch a surprise attack, initiating conflict before any of these indicators come to pass.

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   Increased Activity at US Air Bases in Diego Garcia and Qatar

The United States holds and maintains important air bases in Qatar and the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Both of these facilities received a lot of use during the Iraq wars in 1991 and 2003. They are still used today for supporting the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Because any initial strike against Iraq would involve naval and air forces, these airbases are sure to be the base of operations.

2. Reinforced Security at American Bases in the Middle East

Iran has a plethora of irregular forces and commando forces it could send against American bases in a conflict. The United States is sure to anticipate this and increase security at their bases in the Middle East. They would be various types of ground forces sent in case of a preemptive attack. It is not likely that the US would issue a ground operation against Iran, at least not at the start of the conflict.

3. Reconnaissance Overflights

The United States would increase their reconnaissance efforts before launching any conflict. They would try to keep their efforts as inconspicuous as possible, so the intelligence would mostly come from satellites and stealth. Even so, Iran would spot some of these overflights and would complain about how their airspace had been violated.

4. Evacuating US Civilians and Military Dependents from Bahrain

The United States holds a permanent base in Bahrain known as the “Naval Support Activity”. Given that Bahrain is vehemently opposed and near Iran, the country would no doubt be involved in the conflict; even if they didn’t actively participate in it. If there was a potential for war with Iran, American authorities would pull out any dependents to keep them safe.

5. Increased U.S Naval Activity

America has lessened its naval activity in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf in recent years since the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have lessened. On the other hand, there has been more demand in the Pacific. The Navy would have to send more ships to the region to meet the needs of any conflict with Iran.

Despite all the rhetoric being thrown around, there have been no reports of any indicators of war happening. However, it is worth keeping an eye on these indicators, especially as the internal instability of Iran increases.