Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders will fight it out in Iowa as the poll leaders with the rest of the 2020 Democratic candidates trailing behind.
Anything Can Happen
Just a few days to go till Monday when Iowa’s caucuses will kick off the 2020 race, and Wednesday’s Monmouth University survey indicates that anything can happen – with around 45% of supporters being open to switching support to another candidate on caucus night.
The poll leaders in Iowa so far are Biden with 23% support and Sanders with 21% with Buttigieg and Warren following at 16% and 15% respectively and all other Democratic candidates following them with 10% or less support. Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg was not included in the poll as he’s skipping the first four voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
“Caucus electorates are the most difficult to model in polling. The smartest takeaway from this, or any Iowa poll for that matter, is to be prepared for anything on Monday,” Monmouth University Polling Institute’s director Patrick Murray commented.
The results, however, were slightly different in other surveys, with Biden having a 6-point lead over Democratic rivals in USA Today/Suffolk University’s poll and Sanders receiving most support with a 7-point lead in a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Overall, however, it seems Biden is most preferred by caucus goers when combined by initial preferences and as a second choice, with 39%, and Warren edging out Sanders with a 2% difference to 34% and 32% respectively, followed by Buttigieg with 29%.
All in all, nobody knows what’s going to happen in Iowa, and all Democratic candidates have a chance of turning their fortunes around, but so far, Biden is generally favored to win.
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