We are approaching election day 2020, as in 2016 the trends and talking points are pointedly suggesting a huge victory from the Biden/Harris ticket, just as they had for Hillary Clinton. An individual who is serious about discussing, analyzing and making educated forecasts about who will win DOES NOT put any value in ANY POLL. After 2016 it was shown how badly the polls were skewed. Polling showing a Trump lead in any of the states in the so called "Blue Wall" in the Rust Belt were virtually nonexistent.
The few who did, such as Democracy Institute and Trafalgar Group, were nearly dead on in their electoral vote and state win outlook for the election. They repeated the feat once again in the 2018 midterms. Their information currently shows Donald Trump is positioned to win again. They are continuously ignored and labeled as "outliers."
As stated, I will not analyze polls in an attempt to explain why President Trump is on the path to re-election, even the ones that historically have been correct but I note it. Polling in this country is deeply flawed. The electorate breakdown in 2016 was 36% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 29% Independents.
When viewing polls, you must look under the hood at who is being questioned and where they are located. Most of the polls you see, specifically the ones from CNN, MSNBC, NEW YORK TIMES and even FOX, OVERSAMPLE DEMOCRATS BY HUGE PROPORTIONS.
Looking at the electorate from 2016, it is disingenuous and extremely likely that these pollsters are simply doing the work of the DNC and its surrogates. Showing leads for Biden could possibly suppress enthusiasm which is the only way to stop the MAGA movement.
There is no other explanation for why polling should have breakdowns by Registered Voters, this is not accurate, likely voters are to be polled. There is no other explanation as to why only certain areas of a state are polled as opposed to others. There is no other explanation as to why, citing the most recent NYT poll as an example, Democrats were oversampled at 48%, Republicans at 29% and the rest non-affiliated independents.
Using simple math you will come up with Biden plus 10-12-16 when polling 20% MORE Democrats. This is not difficult to see. This is the overt trend in polling.
Every other metric that determines electoral success favors the Trump ticket. Since 2016, Republicans have won the voter registration battles in key states. Prior to the China Virus arriving on our shores, Trump was cruising towards re-election. The storm has been weathered and although we sadly lost 210,000 lives, the projection was as many as a million.
We also truly do not know who died of the virus as there are errors in testing, no autopsies were performed and general informational error in which COVID-19 was simply listed as cause of death without affirmation.
The recovery of the economy is underway. People reject these statewide lockdowns as do our courts. We have stabilized.
The Gaps between registered Republicans and Democrats are the lowest they have ever been. In Florida, Republicans as of Monday added a net of 195,652 voters compared to the Democrats 98,362. Trump won Florida by 112,911 votes. Florida is clearly trending in his favor again.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans have added a net of 139,754 voters just from this June until October 1st. The Democrats have added 57,997. Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes.
Republicans have added voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and finally Minnesota that outpace Democrats. These people are not registering or changing parties to Republican in order to support Joe Biden. They would have simply remained or registered as Democrats. This is not to mention the crossover appeal. Trump gets anywhere from 88% to 94% of Republican support, he outperformed his final party support polled number in 2016 by 4.5%. He also gets an allocation of Democratic support, from both true Democrats who reject the socialist turn of the party and from those who simply haven't changed their affiliation. America First is a winning mantra.
Optics are important. Look no further than where the Biden campaign is spending its time, whenever he is allowed out of his house. Look at where they are spending their ad money. Importantly, look at where they are not spending money, it's very telling. They are putting money into Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan. They pulled money from Ohio, Iowa and Texas, indicating those states are out of reach for Biden.
He has not been advertising in North Carolina or Florida at anywhere near the pace needed to make an impact on voters or win them. Biden has barely spent any time in Florida and has totally ignored the Latino population as they back Trump's anti-socialist platform. He has focused his campaign entirely on the Rust Belt, where the Democrats globalist anti-American approach to governing has made them bleed working class voters in unrecoverable ways.
If Biden was up by 10 points nationally at minimum as the polls say, he would be campaigning in states like Texas, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, solid red states that would most certainly be in play if the voter gap was that wide. He is doing none of that. His campaign is aware they have a continued problem with working class whites, whites without a college diploma and now it's creeping into whites with college diplomas and suburban women.
They know and fully understand the President is poised to make record gains for a Republican amongst Hispanics and African Americans on the back of record unemployment numbers for those communities, historic income raises and the First Step Act. They know if Trump's support numbers are even half of where they seem to be amongst African Americans, the election is over. It becomes a landslide.
Hillary got 88% of the African American vote and lost. Biden projects to be in the high 70's or low 80's. Biden tried to dictate to blacks that if you don't vote for him, then ''you ain't black." People are fed up with this level of pompousness and assumption.
There is also a turnout problem that could mimic or exceed Hillary's 2016 issues. The Democratic party has lost their stronghold amongst younger voters and minorities. Independents broke for the President significantly in 2016. He now has the power of Incumbency behind him.
Traditionally speaking, undecideds break for the incumbent by wide margins and there is nothing to suggest this will not be the case in 2020. The shy Trump voter is real. They do not answer polls, they do not put signs in their yards, they do not comment on Facebook posts or discuss their views at lunch at work. They are likely to be the person laughing at an anti-Trump joke as its told only to go home and watch Fox News.
The media has tried to embarrass and demean people for their Pro-Trump views and its worked. Now most simply vote in the privacy of the voting booth, where it matters. The enthusiasm gap is real and Trump is destroying the competition. Look at his primary vote totals compared to the Vice President, it's not close. Note that Trump ran unopposed and garnered those numbers. The rallies, fundraising ability and social media trends are all Pro-Trump.
Finally, there is some real data coming in by way of early voting and Vote by Mail. Trump is virtually tied or leading in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. He is behind in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. These states historically favor Democrats in early voting. The margins as compared to 2016, in which he won all those states, is significantly down, likely creating a gap that is un-closable for Biden.
Democrats are running well behind where they need to be and in the vote bank they need to have going into Republican dominated in person voting on election day. If the current trends hold, Trump not only keeps his 2016 map, but likely wins by larger margins in those states. He also has the potential to bring in states such as New Hampshire where he lost by under 0.5 percent, Minnesota where he lost by 44,000 votes, Nevada, New Mexico and possibly Virginia. You also can't rule out the possibility of a state no one sees coming like Oregon or Maine.
Many of these states were the hot spots for the riots and looting committed by ANTIFA and left wing groups across the country. Do not discount the effect of that on the American voter.
Joe Biden has been in government for 47 years. A little under half the country was not even born the last time Joe Biden didn't hold some elected position. He is a habitual liar, a plagiarizing fraud and creepy in ways that should never be allowed.
He has made comments that would get someone fiercely repudiated in today's world. He claims to fight for women, minorities and our country, while he has spent his entire career doing just the opposite. He is China's lapdog and was a huge supporter of NAFTA which destroyed our working class. He has no bills to his name of note, unless you are discussing his sponsorship of the 1994 Law enforcement bill that incarcerated endless African Americans, referred to by Hillary Clinton as "super predators."
In contrast President Trump passed the largest justice reform act in the history of our country. Even our first Black President couldn't get this done. Biden was opposed to taking out Osama bin Laden. He has been on the wrong side of issues for his entire career.
Kamala Harris, the Vice Presidential pick bottomed out at 1% and left the race for the Democratic nomination after her record as a rogue Attorney General of California with unlimited power was put out into public view by Tulsi Gabbard.
She was promoted to her first political job due to her affair with Willie Brown. She tried to bury her Indian heritage in exchange for an African American background and has refused to comment on her family's slave holding ways. She torched Biden for his connection to KKK leader Robert Byrd, at whose funeral Biden spoke, portraying him as racist and sexist. Now she's happy to be used as a token and prop in anything he does as she attempts to be President.
She hurts his cause. Just as in 2016, when the Obama/Biden hand picked successor Hillary Clinton was trounced, the same movement is under way.
The left refuses to recognize why and how the President won. They cling to disproven Russia gate, election interference and attack the electoral college. They point to a popular vote victory, which occurs by way of New York and California, which have more people living in them than 16 states, combined.
Trump won 30 states to Hillary's 20. The result was clear. The left still does not get it. It has never been about Donald Trump, he's just the messenger. It's about putting America and its people First. We will send this message to the world once again on November 3rd.